Get up, Get Out, and Get Voting!
We’re just under an hour away from The Iowa caucus. With a somewhat close battle between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz with The Donald leading Cruz in the last Bloomberg/DMR poll 28-23 and a dead heat between the socialist curmudgeon Bernie Sanders and Hillary “What difference do it make?” Clinton with Clinton leading Bernie 45-42. It’s all coming down to turnout.
Will all the socialist college kids looking for free stuff turn out? Bernie along with Trump have brought new voters out of the woodwork but will they turnout? The Iowa Caucus, a unique primary to the rest of the nation can be very overwhelming and extremely confusing to young, inexperienced voters. So will they turnout?
At a Trump rally in Iowa today, there were a concerning number of empty seats and people were reportedly leaving early and Trump had to as well since he and Sarah Palin had to drive to his next stop rather than fly.
While Rubio and Carson have the highest favorability ratings within the GOP field, Trumps and Cruz still hold a commanding lead with Rubio in a good position for a good night but let’s hope not. The Favorability for Cruz is considerably higher than Trump 65%-50%, Trump also has the less favorable rating among GOP voters with 47% with only his buddy JEB! beating him out with 53%.
Enthusiasm! Enthusiasm is key to good turnout and Cruz also had The Donald’s number in this category as well beating him 56%-44%. It appears to me that the enthusiasm gap we see in the polls echo trump’s thinning crowd today. His absence at Thursday’s debate may hurt him but then again, what has hurt him?. We will see.
My prediction is that we will be going late into the night with a close race and Ted Cruz’s favorability/enthusiasm will set him up to pull of the upset. I really think the establishment media will be dead wrong about Rubio but with JEB! hardly showing a heartbeat in the race, his supporters might jump ship to Rubio and insure a strong 3rd place.
Ted really needs to win tonight or he faces a real uphill battle in the coming primaries with Trump up big in NH and SC.
It’s going to be a real barn-burner tonight and I hope everyone is caffeinated for a very long, interesting night!